BetPick AI

Arbitrage Betting Calculator

Enter both sides of a two-way market from two different sportsbooks and your total stake. We check whether the combined prices leave an arbitrage, then return the exact hedge amount for each leg and the profit you lock in regardless of the result.

Arbitrage check
Arb found · 3.48% margin
Combined implied probability: 96.52% — anything under 100% is a locked profit.
Stake on Book A
$207.21
Stake on Book B
$292.79
Return either way: $518.02
Profit: $18.02
ROI: 3.60%

What is arbitrage betting?

Arbitrage betting — an "arb" or "surebet" — means backing every outcome of a market at different sportsbooks. When two books disagree enough on a price, their combined implied probability drops below 100%, and correctly sized stakes on both sides return the same amount no matter who wins. The gap between that combined probability and 100% is your guaranteed margin.

The arbitrage formula

  1. Convert both American prices to decimal odds.
  2. Add 1 / oddsA + 1 / oddsB. Below 1.00 = arb.
  3. Your margin is 1 − total, typically 0.5%–2%.
  4. Stake on each side = bankroll × (its implied prob ÷ total).

Example: +150 at Book A and −130 at Book B implies 40.00% + 56.52% = 96.52%. A $500 total splits into $207.24 and $292.76, returning $518.10 either way — $18.10 locked in, a 3.6% ROI on the cycle.

How to find arbitrage opportunities

  • Compare a sharp anchor to a slow book. Arbs usually appear when a soft book is late reacting to a move Pinnacle or Circa already made.
  • Watch injury and lineup news. The minutes after a scratch is reported are when book prices diverge the most.
  • Check promos and boosted prices. Odds boosts create the largest, most reliable arbs because the boosted side is priced above fair value.
  • Move fast. Most arbs live for under five minutes. Have both accounts funded and the bet slips ready before you confirm the first leg.
  • Our Line Value Checker devigs any price against the sharp market so you can tell a real arb from a stale line.

The risks nobody advertises

  • Account limits. Books detect arb patterns quickly and will cut your max stake to pocket change or close the account outright.
  • One leg voids. If a player scratches and one book voids while the other grades, your hedge disappears and you are left with a naked position.
  • Line movement between legs. Getting the first bet down and missing the second turns a "sure" thing into a coin flip at bad odds.
  • Palpable-error rules. Books can cancel obviously mispriced bets — exactly the prices that produce the fattest arbs.
  • Capital drag. A 1% margin means you need enormous turnover across multiple funded accounts for the profit to matter.

Arbitrage vs. +EV betting

Arbitrage locks a tiny, certain profit; positive expected value (+EV) betting takes the better side of a mispriced market and wins more over a large sample. +EV scales further, survives account limits better, and is what our model is built around — every pick is devigged against the sharp market before it posts. See the methodology for how that grading works.

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