Predicted probability vs. actual hit rate across 646 graded picks and 11 markets. Updated daily. No cherry-picking, no removed dates.
A perfectly calibrated model sits on the diagonal — 60% picks win 60% of the time.
Lower is better. 0.25 = pure chance, <0.20 = strong edge. Weight = how much we trust the market line vs. our model.
| Sport | Market | Brier | Market Weight | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not enough graded samples yet. | ||||
pick_calibration and pick_market_weight — refreshed nightly from graded picks.