What is a same game parlay (SGP)?

A same game parlay combines multiple bets from a single game into one ticket. Every leg must win. Because legs share the same game, their outcomes are correlated — which sportsbooks price differently than an independent multi-game parlay.

Why do sportsbooks re-price SGPs?

Legs from the same game are correlated. QB pass yards and WR receiving yards, or a team moneyline and its team total, both hit or miss together more often than chance. Books apply a correlation adjustment so they don't get smashed by obvious stacks.

How do I find a +EV same game parlay?

Look for positively correlated legs the book is still pricing near the independent product. This calculator flags those as smash spots and warns when legs are anti-correlated (fade).

SGP Correlation Engine

Same Game Parlay Calculator

Enter the legs of your SGP and compare the sportsbook's price to the true correlation-adjusted probability. Positive correlation = smash. Negative = fade.

Stake ($)Book's SGP price (American)

Leg 1

Leg 2

Leg 3

True win %

21.55%

correlation-adjusted

Independent %

16.34%

naive product

Fair odds

+364

zero-vig

EV at book price

18.53%

+$18.53

✓ Smash spot

True correlation-adjusted probability is +31.9% vs the book's independent estimate. Max pairwise correlation ρ = 0.45.

How the SGP calculator works

Books quote each leg's American odds; we convert to an implied probability, then compute the joint probability using the standard correlation model:

P(A ∩ B) = pA · pB + ρ · √(pA(1−pA) · pB(1−pB))

ρ is the Pearson correlation between the two 0/1 leg outcomes. For example, a QB's passing yards and his top WR's receiving yards correlate around ρ ≈ 0.45 — they hit and miss together far more often than chance. A team moneyline and its opponent's moneyline correlate at ρ ≈ −0.95: they cannot both win.

Smash vs fade

Smash — true probability > 8% higher than the book's independent product. The correlation is working for you and the book hasn't fully re-priced it.
Fade — true probability is 8%+ lower than the independent product. Legs are anti-correlated (e.g. both team totals over in a low-total game).
Neutral — the book's SGP engine has already priced the correlation.

Related tools

→ Parlay calculator — cross-game parlays, no correlation adjustment.
→ No-vig fair odds — strip juice off a single market.