Odds Boost EV Calculator
Books advertise a boost, not a price. This engine devigs every leg, adjusts for same-game correlation, and prices the exact ticket — so you can see whether that +400 boost is real value or the book handing back part of its own hold.
Enter the opposite side's price when you have it — that gives an exact devig instead of the assumed hold.
- •The legs carry 12.9% combined hold — the boost has to clear that before a dollar of it is yours.
- •Strongly correlated legs work in your favour here — the true price is shorter than the naive product.
- •Some legs used an assumed hold. Add the opposite side's price for an exact devig.
- •Even boosted, this needs 18.2% to break even and only wins 15.7% of the time.
How boosts hide negative EV
A boost is only value if it exceeds the tax already inside the ticket. Each leg is quoted with hold, so multiplying the advertised implied probabilities overstates your real chance. Same-game legs are also dependent: positively correlated legs make the ticket more likely than the naive product, while negatively correlated legs quietly make it less likely — which is why books are happy to boost certain stacks.
No-sweat bets are the most misread promo. The refund arrives as a bonus bet that must be re-wagered and does not return your stake on a win, so its true cash value is closer to two-thirds of face.